What mental habit does the Overconfidence Trap warn against?

The Overconfidence Trap specifically addresses the tendency to be overly optimistic about one’s own abilities, knowledge, and predictions regarding outcomes. This mental habit leads individuals to underestimate risks and overestimate their accuracy in decision-making. By being overconfident, a decision-maker may ignore critical data or dissenting opinions, preventing a thorough evaluation of the situation.

In the context of making business decisions, this optimism can result in poor choices, as the individual may not consider negative outcomes adequately. Recognizing the Overconfidence Trap encourages a more balanced approach that incorporates skepticism and a realistic assessment of probabilities.

The other mental habits mentioned do not directly align with the Overconfidence Trap. Being too conservative relates to risk aversion and does not capture the essence of overestimating one’s judgment. Relying heavily on past experiences might lead to biases, but it doesn't specifically address the inherent optimism that overconfidence entails. Questioning too much information suggests a reluctance to believe evidence, which contrasts with the core idea of overestimating one’s knowledge or abilities. Thus, being overly optimistic about outcomes is the mental habit captured by the Overconfidence Trap and is the appropriate choice in this context.